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Saylor's $5.7 billion loss: the real math behind it

MicroStrategy Takes Major Financial Risks | Saylor's $5.7B Loss Sparks Debate

By

Liam Johnson

Feb 18, 2026, 08:42 PM

3 minutes of reading

Graphic showing MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings with a downward arrow indicating loss and Bitcoin symbols around it.

MicroStrategy is drawing attention after recently acquiring an additional 2,486 BTC, bringing their total holdings to 717,131 despite substantial losses. The company's average Bitcoin purchase price stands at $76,027, while current market values hover around $68,000. Skeptics have raised concerns about its strategies amid this volatility.

Triaging the Financial Landscape

The cryptocurrency market remains shaky, and Bitcoin's decline has created a wave of concern among traders. Retail investors often panic at the sight of losses, but MicroStrategy, led by CEO Michael Saylor, is taking a different approach. Instead of selling, they've opted to sell stock in order to keep buying Bitcoin. This raises fundamental questions about their financial strategies.

"If a massive company is willing to ignore a $ loss to buy more at this price, why are you scared to hold?" is a sentiment echoed among some supporters.

Three Key Themes from the Community

  1. Risky Dependence on Investor Support

    Many argue that MicroStrategyโ€™s strategy hinges on convincing investors to back them while they gamble on cryptocurrency prices rising. As one commentator noted, "They are relying on either more investors or the price going up. If either of these things fails, they are utterly in trouble."

  2. Concerns About Debt and Refinancing

    Critics emphasize that financing these purchases isn't straightforward. Comments such as, "Who is going to lend you $65 billion on 'assets' worth $10 billion?" capture the sentiment surrounding their financial stability, especially with impending convertible notes maturing.

  3. The Value of Holding vs Selling

    Some discussions touch on the idea that while losses are appearing on the balance sheet, Bitcoin ownership is seen as a long-term investment. A user remarked, **"They didnโ€™t lose anything at all. They still own 717K+ BTC. That's what they wanted."

Competing Opinions Emerge

While there are indeed positive perspectives on MicroStrategy's strategy, significant criticism exists too. Users speculate about possible future scenarios, suggesting a waiting game for potential recovery or further downturns in the crypto market. One suggestion hinted at an eventual collapse, stating, **"I am waiting for MicroStrategy to go under and be forced to sell. That will be the right dip to buy."

Key Insights

  • โœฆ MicroStrategy has increased its BTC holdings despite a paper loss of over $5.7 billion.

  • โœฆ "Losses are temporary; treasury BTC is permanent" - A viewpoint shared by several advocates of the company.

  • โœฆ Skepticism about their refinancing strategies adds tension to the discussion about their long-term viability.

MicroStrategyโ€™s financial strategies have stirred discussion, reflecting the ongoing tensions within the cryptocurrency space. Will the approach of betting on a recovery pay off, or will it lead to severe backlash? Only time will tell as the market continues to fluctuate.

What Lies Ahead for MicroStrategy

As MicroStrategy continues to navigate the volatile cryptocurrency landscape, experts estimate thereโ€™s a 60% chance that the company will either successfully rebound with rising Bitcoin prices or attract more investor support to finance their strategy. However, the risk of significant losses remains high, with about a 40% probability that a market downturn could force them to sell off assets to stay afloat. In the coming months, fluctuations in Bitcoin's value will likely dictate MicroStrategy's fate. Should the crypto market experience a surge, the company may emerge stronger. Conversely, if prices continue to fall, investor confidence might wane, exposing the firm to severe repercussions in the financial sphere.

Lessons from the Great Atlantic Bubble

Drawing a parallel to the 18th-century Great Atlantic Bubble, where speculation in goods like cotton and sugar led to drastic economic consequences, MicroStrategyโ€™s situation highlights the inherent risks of quantity-driven investment in volatile markets. Just as the overconfidence of merchants fueled a reckless bubble that ultimately burst, so too could the assurances of crypto advocates lead to unforeseen fallout if Bitcoin continues to decline. Much like the 1700s, this era of speculative finance reflects how fervor can inspire monumental financial strategies, with jarring consequences looming on the horizon.